The rainfall that is expected over the next week has increased slightly as the area of low pressure in the western Gulf becomes more organized. The low, now dubbed Investigation 91 (see related post for more on this), has a 70% chance of developing into a named storm over the next week as it moves first south and then north again under the variable steering currents. The Southeast will be to the right of the storm’s expected path, and that means that we will be under moist flow moving north off of the Gulf of Mexico. Areas near the coast could see the most rain, while other areas, will see increased rain as the storm moves to the northeast over Louisiana and Mississippi. The rain will begin falling by Tuesday in western parts of the region and should progress as the storm moves to the NE over the next few days. Embedded areas of heavy rain will be mixed with lighter rain amounts to the north and east except along the immediate East Coast.
The rain is not expected to be as heavy as in Debby because the storm will be moving faster but will just add more moisture to soil that in some areas is still quite wet in spite of the recent dry conditions. Most of the region will see some rain from the storm but amounts will decrease from south to north as the storm weakens and access to Gulf moisture decreases. After that storm (which could be called Francine if it develops), the rain should become much more scattered and drier conditions will return. But what we actually get depends on whether the tropics become more active again, so keep watching.
