We are continuing to watch the El Nino begin to fade away in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, although there is still plenty of warm water there. Last year, while El Nino was growing, the strong jet kept most of the tropical storm development out over the very warm Atlantic Ocean, although we still experienced some tropical activity, especially Hurricane Idalia. All predictions indicate that a swing to La Nina, the opposite phase of the Southern Oscillation, is likely to occur sometime this summer, although the exact timing varies depending on which model you look at. In either neutral conditions (between El Nino and La Nina) or in La Nina, the subtropical jet is weaker, allowing more development of tropical waves into full-blown tropical storms or hurricanes. That means a very active Atlantic tropical season is likely, and much more of the development will occur farther west, closer to the East Coast or in the Gulf of Mexico.
Both of those areas are bad news for the Southeast, and we are likely to experience impacts from those storms, either flooding rains, high winds, or storm surges along the coast. Of course, we don’t know where those storms will go so some areas may be impacted severely while others are left high and dry. Since it only takes one storm to cause tremendous problems, however, now is a great time to think about preparations for the next hurricane season. You can read more at Future La Nina Likely Means More Active Tropical Season – Specialty Crop Grower and Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season | NOAA Climate.gov.
