Today NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced that the La Nina which has been present since early January is now over and we are back to neutral conditions. This La Nina was very short-lived and was categorized as a weak La Nina which peaked in early February. It did have some impact on the winter climate but not as much as a strong La Nina might have. The neutral conditions are expected to last for the next few months and through the Atlantic hurricane season. By late fall there is an almost even chance that we will return to a La Nina again but there is a not insignificant change we could swing to an El Nino as well. You can read more here.
The spring predictability barrier makes it tough to provide firm guidance about later in the year so we will continue to monitor the ENSO conditions. We do know that a neutral summer is more likely to have an above-average number of named tropical storms in the Atlantic and that is consistent with the predictions on the number of storms expected this coming season. Of course, we don’t know where those storms will go at this point so we will be watching and waiting as we head for the official start of the season on June 1.
