It might be almost November, but the tropics are not done for the season just yet. The National Hurricane Center’s latest 7-day outlook map shows three areas of interest, including one area in the western Caribbean that has a 60% of development in the next week. Fortunately, this time of year is less nurturing for tropical systems, with the Gulf of Mexico waters cooling off and wind shear aloft increasing. There is also more activity in the mid-latitudes, and the fronts that are starting to affect the Southeast will likely help to fend off any storms that do develop. At this point, I don’t see a lot to worry about, but it is still something to watch because a few of the individual computer runs in the ensembles point to a very small but not zero possibility of more tropical activity in the Southeast. Most likely if a storm does develop in the western Caribbean it will be shunted off to the south and east of Florida and the SE Coast.
