The latest Drought Monitor, released today, shows a big expansion of abnormally dry (D0) conditions across most of the Southeast with the exception of the Florida Peninsula due to the complete lack of rainfall and above normal temperatures that have occurred for most of October. However, the DM takes different longer time scales into account and when that complete lack of rain is added to the 7 or more inches from Helene late in September plus additional rain from Debby in August, the 3-month average is pretty close to normal or even above normal. Hence the drought depicted is not what many farmers are currently experiencing. Unfortunately, plants don’t respond to 3-month rainfall (most of which did not sink into the soil but ran off instead) but need regular weekly rain to stay healthy, and this has just not happened this month.
I am well aware from comments from many of you that the lack of any rain has caused severe hardship for forage producers and livestock owners, who are having to feed hay because nothing is growing right now, and producers waiting to plant winter grains are just having to wait for some moisture to germinate the seed. Peanut farmers have also been complaining about how hard the ground is and the damage to plows that is occurring when they try to harvest the peanuts. The only benefit to farmers is that folks who are still harvesting cotton and pecans are enjoying the dry conditions and disease pressure on fall crops is low.
I expect a few more days of dry weather before the high pressure that has dominated the Southeast in October moves off and allows some stormy weather to move into the area, increasing our chances of rain by the end of the next week. Since we are headed into a La Nina winter, we may expect to see more dry periods in the coming months, especially in southern AL and GA and in Florida, although the La Nina may be weak and short-lived. Areas that are affected by the La Nina can most likely expect fairly dry conditions in the spring, which would be a big change from last year when planting was delayed because the soil was so wet.
