I don’t put any faith in winter forecasts from the Old Farmer’s Almanac or the Farmers’ Almanac because over time scientists have shown that their forecasts are incorrect more often than they are right, although they are often so vague that it is hard to evaluate. But I know many farmers and others who consult them regularly. Of course, the official forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are also not always correct and people seem to remember the busts more than the accurate predictions. This is not so different from people saying that weather forecasts are only right half the time, because you are more likely to remember a few predictions that did not work out than the many forecasts that got things right. Here are a couple of recent articles describing the winter forecasts from both almanacs and official climate sources to show what they are predicting for this winter and how you should evaluate them.

Growing Produce: Farmers Almanacs Vs. Modern Science: Which Winter 2023-2024 Forecast Will Win Out?

Washington Post (paywalled, sorry, and from 2022 so does not discuss this year’s climate): Winter weather predictions abound, but which should you trust?

Source: Commons Wikimedia