We know that hurricanes are more likely to develop when ocean temperatures are warmer than normal and when the winds high above the surface are weak. That information helps scientists make predictions about how active a hurricane season is likely to be, especially because El Nino usually increases the winds and La Nina or neutral conditions mean the upper level winds are weak. But how is this likely to change in the future? We know that sea surface temperatures have been going up in recent years along with the global temperatures, but the winds are harder to predict. Columbia University recently posted an article which described how hurricane seasonal forecasting has changed and improved over time looking at these and other factors. I was especially intrigued by the idea that some day they may be able to predict which weeks will be more active and which will be quieter. You can read more at their State of the Planet blog here.
