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How likely is a hurricane strike on the 2020 GOP convention in Jacksonville?

The frequency of hurricane activity at any specific location is something that I get asked almost every year, including this one. This question has special import this year with the impending Republican National Convention which was recently moved to Jacksonville, FL during August 24-27. So you might wonder what the chances are of having a hurricane hit that location while the convention is in session? Jeff Masters provides an excellent discussion of this likelihood at Yale Climate Connections here, including how an active hurricane season would change these odds. But hey, it’s 2020, so anything could happen.

Oct. 14, 2016- The onshore pounding of waves and storm surge from Hurricane Matthew washed away parts of the protective dunes at Jacksonville Beach, Florida. Source: NOAA