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ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through spring

The latest weekly ENSO outlook was released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today and show that while the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are quite warm at the moment, neutral ENSO conditions are expected to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter (70% chance) and spring (65% chance).

In neutral conditions there is no strong signal towards above or below normal temperatures or precipitation in the Southeast, but there is some chance of larger than usual swings in climate conditions, including the possibility of a late frost. With the warm winter temperatures so far this season, there should be some concern by fruit producers that flowers will bloom earlier than usual but could be followed by either a seasonal or late frost. So far there are no signs that the warmer and wetter weather pattern over the eastern half of the US is going to break down, but we will be watching the large-scale patterns closely to see if any flip in the pattern starts to appear. You can read the latest weekly breakdown at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf.