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ENSO update: Increased chance for El Niño next fall or winter

The latest ENSO update from NOAA at shows that a blob of warmer than normal temperatures is slowly moving eastward under the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and should displace the cold water that remains from the fading La Niña in the next few months. That has increased the chances of an El Niño occurring from the climatological 35% to 45% when taking the current conditions into account. However, we are not past the spring predictability barrier yet, so any forecasts should be taken with caution. You can read their discussion at