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Climate outlook for August and next three months shows increased chance of above-normal temperatures

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their latest monthly and three-month outlooks for the US.  They show that for both August and the August through October period, temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal, although of course normal and below normal conditions are possible although less likely.  Precipitation for both August and Aug-Oct are at equal chances.  This reflects the fact that most summertime rainfall in the Southeast is driven by small-scale processes like thunderstorms and tropical storms which can’t be captured by climate models. With no strong El Niño or La Niña present, we may see EC as the precip forecast for the next few months until stronger signals reemerge in fall and winter.