Earlier this week Jonathan Belles at the WunderBlog discussed whether having the record earliest “D” tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean predicted what the activity would be for the rest of the season. You can watch a video and read about it here.
Based on his statistics, seasons that are active early don’t really indicate that the rest of the season will be more active than usual. But keep in mind that NOAA has already predicted a more active season this year due to warm ocean water and the neutral conditions, which minimize wind shear aloft and allow storms to more easily develop once they start. And of course, it only takes one storm to cause havoc, so keep watching the tropics. The season has just started!