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After the rain, a return to drier than normal conditions

After the next week, which should have a couple of episodes of rain, most of the mid-range models are suggesting a return to drier than normal conditions which should last through most of October.  This will be the key time to harvest hay and crops that require dry conditions.  By the end of October, most models are shifting to wetter than normal conditions which could last until March or later.

The map below shows the composite map of precipitation anomalies for strong El Niño years for October.  It shows dryness for most of the Southeast with the exception of southern Florida.

NOAA analog forecast for October for strong El Nino years

NOAA analog forecast for October for strong El Nino years