In NOAA’s latest “Beyond the Data” blog entry, Deke Arndt talks about the impacts of an El Nino year on the likelihood that 2015 may be the warmest year ever in recorded history.

He presents the graph below, which shows the temperature differences from the long-term average, for each month starting in 1982.  Bars in red indicate months with an El Nino-like “flavor” and those in blue a La Nina-like “flavor”, while neutral years are in gray.  The graph shows the rising temperatures throughout this time period, but also show that El Nino years tend to be warmer than the trend and La Nina years tend to be cooler, especially the longer the El Nino or La Nina lasts.

You can read the full details here and see a clearer picture of the graph.  The bottom line: El Nino definitely increases the chances for a record-setting warm year, but there are other cycles that can also contribute to the global temperature, so climatologists will have to continue to watch to see how 2015 falls out.

Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA