The Los Angeles Times published an article this week discussing the impact of the El Nino on California’s drought. Typically El Nino brings plentiful rain to the area. In the last big El Nino in 1997-98, it brought floods and a lot of destruction as well as 17 deaths.
Now that NOAA has predicted that there is at least an 80 percent chance of the El Nino lasting through the next winter (California’s typical rainy season) there is some hope that rain will come back to the state, breaking the drought. A lot depends on whether or not the El Nino lasts until winter and how strong it will be, and the predictors are not all in agreement on that, since it is usually hard to predict a winter El Nino the previous spring.
Two things are important to keep in mind: the current drought is the result of many years of water deficits, and it will take more than one winter to eliminate all the water shortages in California; and if a large amount of rain does fall in the next winter, it could well cause significant damage, reducing the positive impact.
Time magazine also pointed out that the benefits to California will also most likely lead to drier than normal conditions in Australia and Indonesia (link).
