We’ve been watching the Eastern Pacific Ocean for almost a year, waiting for the onset of El Nino. In the Southeast, El Nino occurrences are related to cool and wet winters and decreased tropical storm activity, so when one occurs we have some extra knowledge about how the weather is likely to behave for the next few months.
This year, in spite of some signs that El Nino conditions are present (especially the lack of tropical activity), the atmospheric and oceanic conditions never quite got their act together and NOAA stopped short of declaring that an official El Nino was taking place (although the Japan Meteorological Agency did declare one). Now, while NOAA and other groups are still giving a chance for a weak El Nino to occur, the window for one to pull itself together is rapidly closing, and if it does not organize in the next month then it is not likely to occur.
Early signs for next winter indicate that the opposite pattern, a La Nina, may occur. If this happens, the winter of 2015-16 will likely be warmer and drier than normal, but we could see a more active tropical season this fall.
You can read a recent story about this at AL.com by clicking here.
