Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast

NOAA releases new winter outlook

NOAA released their latest outlook for December and for December through January today.  The new forecasts are not a big change from previous forecasts, and the 3-month winter forecast is still leaning towards the development of a weak El Nino, with wetter than normal conditions expected in the southern part of the Southeast along the coast.  The NOAA predictions for an El Nino were reduced to 55 percent a few weeks ago, but the Australian Bureau of Meteorology just upped theirs to 70 percent chance, so there is still some hope that one will develop.  This would improve soil moisture in south Alabama and Georgia where it is certainly needed.  It is also interesting to note that the December forecasts are for equal chances of above, below, and near normal temperatures, indicating that NOAA doesn’t think that the unusually cold air will necessarily continue in the next month.  And there are a number of years in which a cold fall was followed by a warm winter, so if you like warm weather, all hope is not lost.  I’ve put the DJF forecasts below; you can find the December forecasts at www.cpc.noaa.gov.

Source: NOAA with pie charts from IL State Climatologist

  Source: NOAA with pie charts from IL State Climatologist

decjanfeb_precip_outlooks_with_pies_610