Yesterday NOAA issued their latest winter weather outlook. The story is here and the maps are below. Their forecast is based on the likely (67 percent chance) development of a weak El Nino in the next two months which would steer the subtropical jet stream across southern Georgia and Alabama and Florida. While an El Nino has not been officially observed yet, there are some signs that one is underway. Unfortunately, the weak El Nino pattern means there is likely not much relief from the drought in California this winter.