Skip to Content

Tropical update–a big mess

The National Hurricane Center has started issuing advisories on the old Investigation 91 in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, now identified as a tropical depression with a closed center.  This system is not expected to make landfall.  Investigation 92 is still east of Florida and moving west, but so far has not developed to the point of becoming a tropical depression.  However, model runs show that it is likely to cross the Florida peninsula and enter the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days, and it may strengthen during that time.  The models are not in agreement on where it will go after that.  The latest batch of model runs has it hitting anywhere from Mexico to North Carolina, although somewhere in the vicinity of eastern Louisiana is right in the middle of all the possibilities.  This wide variety in the prediction of where it might go is one reason why you should not trust forecasts made 8-10 days out.  But clearly this system has the potential to cause some problems for the Southeast in the next week so keep monitoring forecasts and the National Hurricane Center notices for updates.

tropical update 9-11-2014