The State Climate Office of North Carolina has released their official forecast for the winter of 2015-16. You can read it on their blog at https://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=166&h=5666e5c1.
Here’s their summary of what to expect for North Carolina this winter. The more general aspects of the forecast are also applicable to the rest of the Southeast, although snowfall is less likely the farther south you go.
The Bottom Line
We have high confidence in seeing a wet winter with numerous precipitation events — both liquid and frozen — thanks to the El Niño-strengthened southerly storm track. Our confidence in this wet forecast for the Mountains is slightly lower since El Niño’s impacts are often lessened along and west of the Appalachians.
Even one or two significant wintry events would likely bring above-normal snowfall, which we expect will be the case for North Carolina, on average. Of course, mixed precipitation — sleet or freezing rain — could hinder local snow totals like we saw last winter.
While the coolest temperatures relative to normal should also come during January and February, we have lower confidence in an overall winter temperature forecast. We expect equal chances of winter average temperatures being above or below normal, matching the mixed guidance provided by the closest analog years.
