NOAA released their January 2017 update for ENSO (the oscillation that is the combination of El Niño and La Niña) this week. It shows that weak La Niña conditions still remain in the eastern Pacific, but that they are expected to go back to neutral conditions within two months. Even though it will be technically neutral, La Niña-like conditions may remain, leading to at least parts of the Southeast (most likely Florida) to be warmer and drier than normal. Early forecasts for late in 2017 are showing a possible swing to El Niño, but NOAA reminds folks not to take that too seriously yet, since the models this time of year are notoriously poor at these predictions (it’s called the “spring predictability barrier”) and an El Niño to La Niña back to El Niño swing in two years seldom happened in the past record. One thing that we do know from past neutral springs is that the chance of a late frost goes up since the atmosphere often swings more wildly than usual between cold and warm episodes. So don’t get too anxious to start planting if we have a warm spell until you know a cold wave is not just down the pike.
You can read the discussion at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2017-enso-update-happy-new-year.
