Today’s ENSO forecast from NOAA shows that we now have a 50% chance of an El Niño by late summer or early fall and a 65% chance of an El Niño next winter, so they have instituted an El Niño Watch. A watch means that while we are still in neutral conditions, the ocean temperatures appear to be moving towards above-normal temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and computer models suggest that an event appears to be developing. Since we are climbing out of the spring predictability barrier, the confidence is increasing that we will see an El Niño later this year. You can read more at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2018-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-watch.
