According to the latest ENSO blog by NOAA, La Niña is now officially over and we have returned to neutral conditions as of May 13, 2021. NOAA forecasters estimate about a 67% chance that neutral conditions will continue through the summer. The ENSO forecast for the fall is less confident, with odds of a second-year La Niña currently hovering around 50–55%. You can read a lot more details on their blog at https://climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2021-enso-update-bye-now-la-ni%C3%B1a. If you are wondering how it will affect the hurricane season, we usually have a fairly active season in neutral summers, so that is not likely to change, but it also depends on sea surface temperatures, dust coming off of Africa, and other factors, and NOAA will be considering all of these before they issue their outlook for the 2021 season. The IRI forecast shows that neutral conditions are likely to continue over the summer.
