NOAA released the latest ENSO update this morning. It continues to show that the current El Nino is purring along as expected and has an 80% chance of continuing through spring. You can read more about it in the latest ENSO blog at October 2023 El Niño update: big cats | NOAA Climate.gov or look at the scientific figures at Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (noaa.gov). The CPC discussion indicates that there is at least a 3 in 10 chance that it will be a historically strong El Nino similar to the ones that rival 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0°C). Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally. For us in the Southeast, that means the jet stream is likely to be parked over us for much of the winter, bringing cooler daytime temperatures and cloudy conditions along with a lot of precipitation, although we can’t say much about snow since it is a pretty rare event here in a lot of the Southeast.
