Even though we are still in a strong El Nino, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina watch today for the expected swing from our current ENSO phase through neutral to the opposite phase, La Nina, by mid-summer. The speed at which the atmosphere transitions from one phase to another will determine what kinds of impacts we will experience. However, generally with either neutral or La Nina conditions in place, we can expect a more active Atlantic tropical season than average. Since the central Atlantic Ocean is currently at June-like temperatures already, there is plenty of heat there for storms to develop if other conditions are right, although water temperatures closer to the coast are not as warm. If the transition from El Nino to La Nina is more rapid, we are also more likely to go into dry conditions later in the summer, although exactly how dry and when and where they will occur is not predictable this far in advance. There is no correlation between El Nino or La Nina, although neutral years do have a slightly increased chance of a late frost than in years with either of the two phases. You can read more at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
