Do any of you remember that old advertisement for women’s hair color which said “Does she or doesn’t she? Only her hairdresser knows for sure”? Well, at the moment it’s similar to our question about whether or not El Niño will reappear in the next few months. NOAA’s latest prediction has shown just a slight edge to El Niño over continued neutral conditions, but a 5% edge doesn’t give us much confidence in the forecast. And the individual models which predict which way the tropics will swing are all over the place, which give us even less confidence. Scientific American posted this recent article discussing why it’s hard to tell and what the spring prediction barrier is. You can also read the latest ENSO update at IRI at Columbia University at https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/.
