The latest ENSO forecast from NOAA indicates that the development of an El Niño later this year is increasingly unlikely, although it is not zero. A La Nina is very unlikely to form. The latest IRI forecast graph shows that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the next few months based on an ensemble of computer forecasts. That means it will be difficult to make any predictions about next winter’s weather, although neutral conditions are associated with more active Atlantic tropical seasons (hence the current high-activity forecast for this year) and are also associated with late frosts in the next spring. Since we are past the spring predictability barrier this should be a fairly high-probability forecast. You can read the NOAA discussion at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
