The latest ENSO discussion was released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today. It indicates that our neutral conditions are already swinging towards the next El Nino and that it may be present as soon as the May through July period. We need to keep in mind that spring forecasts are generally less accurate than forecasts later in the year so a surprise could still happen, but it is looking increasingly like El Nino will be here for this summer and fall. The biggest impact of El Nino during the growing season in the Southeast is the suppression of the Atlantic tropical season, with fewer storms expected than in neutral or La Nina years. However, as they say, it only takes one hitting near you to cause big impacts…to you. You can read the latest discussion here. Keep in mind that the trend towards warmer temperatures over time across the Southeast may outweigh the impacts of an El Nino, especially over the next few months while the El Nino is still developing.
