In a sharp change from last month’s El Niño outlook, the latest forecast from IRI now shows that they expect the current weak El Niño to end within the next couple of months. Last month’s forecast predicted it would last through most of the summer and perhaps into next fall. If this holds true, it could mean an uptick in the expected number of tropical systems this year, since years with El Niños usually have less storms than average compared to neutral years. None of the monthly forecasts shows a likely return to La Niña over the next year, but the likelihood of neutral versus El Niño going into next winter is fairly close to even. It will be interesting to see what NOAA and other climate agencies think as they put out their outlooks in the next few weeks. You can read more at https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/.
