The latest 7-day QPF map posted today shows that the driest areas of the region are not likely to get much precipitation this week. The best chance for rain is Monday night through Wednesday evening in Alabama and northern parts of Georgia as well as Tennessee as a front brings some rain and the potential for severe weather to parts of the region. Most of Florida and the coastal plains of GA and the Carolinas will get almost no rain, and there will be only limited amounts in Virginia. After Wednesday, dry conditions are expected to return for the remainder of the week. The Climate Prediction Center increases the chances of rain in Week 2 and temperatures are expected to continue to be warmer than normal during that time period too.
Any rumors of either unusual cold conditions with snow or a tropical system coming out of the Gulf are very low probability events that have been showing up on social media but are only showing up in one or two out of a hundred different model solutions a week or more in the future. Don’t trust those long-range forecasts, since the computer models spin out a lot of very unlikely scenarios that get blown up by irresponsible influencers who might call themselves meteorologists but usually are not.
If you are traveling for Thanksgiving, it looks pretty quiet on Thursday through Saturday with generally seasonal conditions, although there could be some morning frost at higher elevations and more northern latitudes. The next chance of rain appears to be coming in on Saturday night and into Sunday in Alabama, Tennessee, and northern Georgia.
