The area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico has finally coalesced into a tropical depression earlier today and is now Tropical Storm Milton. Milton is expected to deepen as it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico and is predicted to hit somewhere along the West Coast of Florida midweek, potentially as a major hurricane. The center of the cone is near Tampa, but the cone is very wide, which indicates there is still a lot of uncertainty about the exact path of the storm. Many areas along the West Coast of Florida were hit by storm surges from Hurricane Helene that were the highest on record and caused a lot of damage late in September. Early projections for storm surge from Milton are even higher, and emergency managers are preparing to evacuate a lot of people out of low-lying areas that are most likely going to be inundated by ocean water pushed onshore by Milton. There will also be strong winds, heavy rain, and some tornadoes. There may also be some storm surge on the East Coast of Florida as the storm moves across the peninsula and out to sea, changing the local pattern of wind flow as it moves.
If you are located anywhere in the Florida peninsula or along coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle or in southeast Georgia or along the Georgia coast, you will want to watch this storm carefully to see where it is predicted to go. The rainfall pattern is based on the current forecast cone but you should prepare for the worst case and not focus on where the middle of the cone is because it is likely to shift somewhat over time as we saw with Helene. Forecasts are updated every three hours as new data are ingested into the forecast models so don’t use an old forecast chart for planning purposes–get something up to date instead and prepare to see additional changes over time. The impacts are usually worse on the right side of the cone, so what you get will depend on the track that the center of Milton takes. Also note that some of the rain will start early this week as a Precursor Rain Event similar to what we had with Helene before the main rain shield comes onshore. This could occur more on the northern side of where the cone is currently shown due to interaction with a front in the area. This will saturate the soil and add to the potential for flooding once Milton comes onshore.
Needless to say, this could have huge agricultural costs as it could hit the main citrus belt and an area with a lot of vegetable production. Preparations in that area should be completed by Tuesday evening and even earlier if you will be affected by the rainfall from the PRE. You may have some difficulty finding things like generators and gas cans due to the high demand from those suffering from the impacts of Helene just over a week ago. Cash may be needed if power goes out and people are unable to process credit card transactions. Hand sanitizer can be useful if you don’t have access to water due to power outages shutting down pumps or flooding closing water treatment plants.
