The latest ENSO discussion was released today. It shows that we are close to a transition from neutral conditions to a La Nina in the next couple of months. A La Nina is 71 percent likely to be present in the October-December period. That could mean warmer and drier conditions in the southern part of the region late in the harvest period as well as in early winter. The La Nina is expected to diminish by spring and it is not expected to be strong, just like last year, so other factors may be more important in our weather than the La Nina weather patterns. El Nino has virtually no chance of occurring this winter but chances increase as we go into early summer, although neutral conditions are most likely to prevail. You can read more at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
