The latest Atlantic tropical outlook shows recently strengthened Hurricane Gabrielle along with two areas of potential development in the central Atlantic Ocean. Gabrielle went from a nothing-burger of a storm a few days ago to a Category 1 Hurricane today and is expected to remain at hurricane strength through Wednesday, although it will be moving away from the US and will be no threat to us. It could briefly reach major hurricane status before it starts to weaken over the colder Atlantic waters.
In addition to Gabrielle are two areas of potential development. A wave that moved off of Africa has a 60% chance of developing into Humberto in the next week, while another area of potential development just a bit to the west of that storm is also showing a 20% chance of development over the next week. The long-range forecasts are pretty skeptical that either of them will approach the US, but it is worth keeping an eye on them just in case.
The longer-range AI and traditional computer models are also indicating that there is some potential for the development of a storm in the southern Caribbean during the first week of October, but they have been going back and forth about how likely that is so there are no immediate concerns there either. One thing to keep in mind is that a lot of fall hurricanes develop in the Caribbean and Gulf rather than from waves coming off Africa, so we need to keep watching that area, especially because ocean temperatures in the Gulf are very warm right now, which could mean rapid development of any storm that does pop up. Nothing to worry about now, just something to consider since we still have almost half the tropical season to go.
