According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Milton made landfall just south of Sarasota FL at 8:30 pm EDT on October 9 as a category 3 hurricane. It had reached category 5 earlier today after going through an eyewall replacement cycle last night and re-intensifying, but increased wind shear and drier air being pulled into the storm decreased the wind speed over the afternoon and evening as it approached land. Until 5:30 pm it was on a path to move up into Tampa Bay but at that point in time it turned towards the ENE, making landfall farther south than Tampa, which reduced the catastrophic storm surge that would have occurred if it had made landfall there. Sadly, that means that as I am writing this on Wednesday night, the worst storm surge is now occurring near Sarasota and to the south and it will be devastating.
The double map image below compares how the storm surge would have looked if Milton had made landfall over Tampa Bay rather than closer to Sarasota where it actually occurred. The difference of just 30-40 miles in the point of landfall significantly changed the impacts of the storm surge. This is why meteorologists urge people in affected areas not to follow the center line of the forecast, because small changes in the track of the storm can have big impacts. We also saw this in Hurricane Helene with an actual track to the right of the forecast cone, which shifted the strongest winds and heaviest rain farther to the east than we might have expected, sparing Atlanta and Athens GA the worst of the wind but causing tremendous damage in eastern Georgia.
Milton’s structure is strongest on the north side of the storm, and rain is falling there at a tremendous rate. Winds are also strong there due to the interaction with a front in the area. In fact, nearly all of Florida with the exception of the western Panhandle is currently experiencing tropical storm force winds. Milton is currently moving ENE at 15 miles per hour. By Thursday morning, the center of Milton is expected to be near Orlando, and by afternoon it will be out over the Atlantic Ocean. Fortunately, Milton is not expected to turn back towards land but will move out into the Atlantic and is expected to lose its tropical characteristics by Friday morning.
Tomorrow morning I expect to see wide areas of destruction both along the coast from the storm surge and inland due to the hurricane-force winds and rain. This area is also near the path of Hurricane Ian in 2022, and farmers there were still recovering from that storm, so this is an added blow to them. Please keep all of the folks along the path of Milton in your thoughts and prayers as they become the latest region to deal with the crippling blow of a major hurricane.

