NOAA released their August update on the prediction of the number of Atlantic tropical storms in 2023 this week. It shows an increase in the expected number of storms over their earlier May prediction. The probability of an above-normal season has increased from 30% to 60%. This is due in large part to the continued very warm ocean water and the expectation of weaker Saharan dust coverage as we go into the main season. This is in spite of the expectation that we would have fewer storms this year due to wind shear from the current El Nino. You can read more at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml. Note that this does not necessarily mean we will have more land-falling storms, just that there are likely to be more storms overall. And since it is a statistical forecast, there is still a chance of a below (15%) or near normal (25%) season as well. Only time will tell.
NOAA’s updated Atlantic Hurricane forecast increases likelihood of an active season
Posted in: Climate outlooks