In this blog, we often talk about the impact of El Nino and La Nina on the climate patterns in the Southeast. We are still in a La Nina, but after three years, it is expected to change fairly quickly to the opposite phase, El Nino (60% likelihood). With the shift, we could see an increased chance of drought in the Southeast based on probabilities from past events, although it would probably not hit the entire Southeast, and could be fended off by tropical rainfall if we get a tropical storm or hurricane across a dry area at a favorable time (although tropical storm activity is lower in an El Nino year). The NOAA Climate blog has a good discussion comparing La Nina versus El Nino weather and what we might expect later this year.
