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October 2021 is expected to be warmer than normal

The latest monthly climate outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction was released earlier this week. It shows that all of the Southeast except the southern tip of Florida has an enhanced chance of warmer than normal conditions for October. Rainfall is listed as equal chances of wetter, drier, and normal conditions, which means there is no strong signal. It depends to some extent on whether we have any tropical storms that move through the area, and that is not predictable on a monthly time scale. We do know that we are still in the most active part of the Atlantic tropical season, and even though there is nothing immediately threatening, the Gulf temperatures are very warm and if anything does develop, it could strengthen very rapidly with all that fuel.