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“Cone of uncertainty” refresher

As I am writing, the rain from TS Elsa is falling outside. The tree frogs are going nuts! The remains of Elsa are crossing Georgia’s coastal plain tonight, and it is headed off to the northeast towards the Carolinas and Virginia. It is expected to be a tropical depression by the time it hits North Carolina but could spin up again off the East Coast over the warmer water. One of the things that has amazed me with this storm is how well forecast the track of the storm was. The center has always been well within the “cone of uncertainty” put out by the National Hurricane Center. You might not know where this forecast came from, but fortunately Brian McNulty puts out an update every year in his blog describing what the cone means and how it has changed over time. You can read about it here in preparation for the next tropical system that moves through our area.

Hope you survived Elsa safe and sound! I know there were some gusty winds, heavy rains (estimated at over 8 inches in a few places), and even a couple of brief tornadoes in the area to the right of the storm’s path.