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Chances for a double-dip La Nina increase

The latest ENSO outlook issued by IRI at Columbia University today shows that the chance of returning to a La Nina in fall after a summer of neutral conditions has increased. Their official probabilistic forecast shows that La Nina is likely to return by the October through December period. You can read their report at https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ or look at the CPC slides from their last weekly report at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf. Statistically, it means that next winter is likely to be warmer and drier than usual. However, last winter was also a La Nina and the unexpected cold outbreak in February shows that statistics only give probabilities, not necessarily what will actually happen.