Skip to Content

Forbes: Why Today’s Accurate Hurricane Forecasts Can Still Seem So Maddeningly Uncertain

In case you did not notice, my post from yesterday was a little off. As of 8 am this morning Isaias was already a hurricane, a little earlier than I thought it would. The track forecast has wavered a little over the day but Isaias is still predicted to move up the East Coast, probably staying over water until sometime near South Carolina. Note that the latest prediction is a little slower than previous runs, so that now Isaias is expected to be off the Georgia coast on Monday during the day rather than overnight. Hurricane forecasting has improved tremendously over time, but it will never be exact because there are so many variables that go into the forecast. You can read an article in about the improvements and shortfalls in hurricane forecasting here.