(Short answer–probably not.) As part of this week’s special awareness week for the upcoming hurricane season, the State of Georgia Climate Office put together this graph showing the number of hurricanes which affected Georgia by decade. You can see when you look at it that over the last 50 years Georgia has experienced fewer hurricanes than in prior decades. The 1890s in particular were known for the number of significant hurricanes that crossed the state. I posted a link to a list kept by the NWS office in Charleston which describes many of these storms. We don’t know why we have had a decrease in hurricanes over the last 50 years, but there is no reason to think it will continue in the future. In fact, I have seen estimates that if a storm like the 1893 Sea Islands hurricane occurred over the same area as it did before, it would cause damage similar to what Katrina did to New Orleans in 2005. Don’t let myths like the orientation of Georgia’s coast fool you, I had to fight that one this week. If the dynamics of the atmosphere line up correctly, those storms can go anywhere.
So while you can hope that this trend will continue, you need to prepare as if we were going back to the 1890s, and make sure you know your evacuation zones and have an emergency kit ready. The National Weather Service is talking about it all week, so check out your local office for more information. This year could be especially tough for last minute preparations with the supply chains being affected by the novel coronavirus, so get started now!
