As of 11 pm on Labor Day night, Hurricane Dorian is sitting and spinning with virtually no movement. It’s been that way for most of the day, and the center of the eye has moved only about 40 miles the entire day, which gives it an average forward speed of less than 2 mph. While the storm has weakened from a category 5 to a low 4 over the day with wind speeds that are now “only” about 130mph, it has been unleashing its fury across Grand Bahama the entire day. The videos I have seen on Twitter are horrific, and the damage there may never be properly repaired. I have heard of 5 deaths so far, but expect to hear about many more, and like Puerto Rico with Hurricane Maria, many more deaths may be likely in the months following the storm as people there try to recover from this crushing blow.
For us in the Southeast, it is a matter of watching and waiting to see where the storm moves. Since it is not moving now, the steering currents are practically nonexistent, so it could go any way. However, the computer models that the National Hurricane Center use mostly agree that eventually the storm will move towards the northwest to very near the East Coast and then move up paralleling the coast but staying over water all the way past North Carolina. If the track is even a short distance to the west of where the models are predicting, it could make landfall in Florida, Georgia or either of the Carolinas. Even staying offshore will bring heavy rain to the coast along with strong gusty winds and a storm surge that is 4-7 feet along Georgia’s coast, with large waves helping to cause a lot of beach erosion and potential marsh damage. If the predicted path is accurate, then most of the rest of the Southeast away from the East Coast should see fairly nice weather, with the wind and rain increasing as you get closer to the coast. If the path is farther west, then the impacts will also move west.
By the time you read this on Tuesday morning, Dorian may have started to move. Or it may still be sitting and spinning, waiting for something to give it a push. Only time will tell. Meanwhile, stay safe and pray for those in the northern Bahamas as they continue to live through a major hurricane.
