The circulation that drifted south off the coast from Georgia is now slowly gaining structure and is expected to become Tropical Storm Barry within the next day. Very warm water in the eastern Gulf will help the circulation spin up to a TS and potentially even a hurricane if it moves westward over the warm water long enough. Torrential rain is already falling in New Orleans, causing local flooding.
The local rain, along with high streamflows on the Mississippi from the Midwestern rain this year, and storm surge from Barry, are expected to combine to cause local water levels of 20 feet above MSL, which could overtop the levees in some places, leading to catastrophic flooding. The only area of our Southeastern region which is expected to see significant rain is southwestern Alabama including Mobile. Once the storm moves onshore, it could start to recurve to the northeast, bringing a chance of some rain to northern Alabama and Georgia as well as points farther east, but it’s too early to say where it will go at this point, and it might not affect the Southeast at all.