The latest monthly outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for September 2018 shows that warmer and wetter than usual conditions are expected again this month. Nighttime temperatures are likely to be more above normal than daytime temperatures due to the cloud cover associated with the rainstorms, although there should be plenty of sunshine, especially in the mornings before the clouds bloom in the sky.

The big wildcard is what happens in the tropics, since some models are showing several waves coming off the west coast of Africa in the next few weeks, and at this point there is no way to know where those waves will go and whether or not they will develop into organized systems. Currently Tropical Storm Florence is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Most models expect the storm to stay out to sea, but there is a small chance it could affect the US East Coast so folks in eastern NC especially should be watching this. Closer to home, the National Hurricane Center is putting out notices of a potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, which is expected to organize once that tropical wave hits the warm Gulf of Mexico. While it won’t make a direct hit on the Southeast other than the southern tip of Florida, the rainfall and potential tornadoes in bands around the storm could extend far outside the cone shown on the official guidance, so we could see some rain from that. On the other hand, subsidence around the storm could lead to clear and dry conditions away from the storm’s path, potentially increasing abnormally dry conditions in the Carolinas. Make sure you are keeping up to date for changing hurricane conditions from the National Hurricane Center at