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CPC: Latest outlooks for summer and fall

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their latest round of climate predictions late last week. You can always find them at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov too.  The outlooks show that for July, there are equal chances of near, below and above normal precipitation across the Southeast, with most of the region falling into the same EC category for temperature. Not surprising since climate predictability in the summer is often weak in the Southeast, and with neutral conditions in the Eastern Pacific even less skill is likely. The rest of the summer is still expected to be most likely above normal in temperature, which I think is mainly based on long-term trends, while precipitation is also EC for the summer. For fall and winter, an El Niño pattern of cooler and wetter than normal conditions is shown as likely, although when superimposed on the rising temperatures seen in all seasons, that makes winter temperatures fall into the range of equal chances of below, above or near normal temperatures. Drought is not expected to return to the region in the next three months, no big surprise considering the amount of soil moisture available now.