The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is today, June 1. Obviously, we jumped the gun this year with Alberto transitioning from subtropical to tropical storm over land, but it is not that unusual to have a tropical system in the Atlantic before June 1. It is very unusual, though, to have one go over my mom’s house in Michigan, especially in May.

The latest round of predictions for the tropical season arrived yesterday, and most forecasters have reduced their forecasts from earlier in the spring to numbers that are close to the long-term average. This is based on very cold temperatures in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, an area where many tropical systems form, as well as the expected rise of the next El Niño later in the year. You can read more about the forecasts from different groups at Weather Underground at