We will soon enter the last quarter of 2016, and the Climate Prediction Center has just released their latest set of updates for fall and winter.  What do they show us in the Southeast?

Predictions for the end of September continue to show warmer than normal temperatures for most of the rest of the month. The weather forecast models finally show some more fall-like weather in the last few days of September, but those are far enough out that I would not bet on it.  We may get some rain, but there will be more dry and clear days as well.

oct-16-temp-outlook  oct-16-precip-outlook

The CPC prediction for October shows a continuation of this pattern, with an edge to continued warmer than normal conditions and drier than normal conditions, unfortunately mostly in the area with the worst drought.  The three-month outlook for October through December shows that we are in equal chances for near, above or below normal in temperature, but increases the odds for below-normal precipitation across the entire Southeast.

ond-16-temp-outlook  ond-16-precip-outlook

The forecast for January through March shows that temperature has a somewhat increased chance of above-normal values while precipitation continues to lean towards drier than normal conditions.  By April, temperature chances continue to be higher than average (based on current climate trends) but there are equal chances of near, above or below normal amounts in the late spring and summer months.

jfm-17-temp-outlook  jfm-17-precip-outlook

With La Niña-like conditions present in the eastern Pacific Ocean at present, we can continue to see some impacts of that climate regime in the fall, which is most likely why CPC is still leaning towards warmer and drier than normal conditions. However, a neutral pattern, which climate forecasters predict is likely to happen, does allow the possibility of some cold air outbreaks into the Southeast, so I would not be surprised to see some frigid conditions this year, although those outbreaks may not last long.  With the outbreaks comes the chance for frost, which may be a problem for farmers in the spring as things begin to bloom.  Unfortunately, this pattern also looks like the drought in northern Georgia and Alabama may not end anytime soon and may spread to the Carolinas and Virginia as well over the next few months.  Fortunately, drought usually reduces in severity over the winter as temperatures decline and evaporation and evapotranspiration decrease as the growing season ends.