Investigation 99L has confounded forecasters’ attempts to figure out when, where and even if it is going to develop into a tropical storm, much less where it might be going. Originally hurricane forecasts predicted that it would organize into a tropical depression and storm and then cross southern Florida. But the storm development has been hampered both by strong wind shear aloft, which has kept convection from getting going, and the mountains of Hispaniola, which has broken apart the bottom circulation of the storm.
The National Hurricane Center is still giving it a 50% chance of developing into a tropical storm, but have lowered the chances from earlier this week. No matter if it develops or not, the wave is still likely to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to southern Florida. After that, who know? Jeff Masters of Weather Underground describes the likely scenario and what could happen in his blog tonight at https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/waitandsee-drama-with-99l-will-continue-for-up-to-another-week. AccuWeather also has a good discussion here. Meanwhile two other areas of low pressure have a small chance (20%) of developing in the next five days. The western one could bring more rain to Texas and Louisiana over the next few days. Stay tuned, y’all!
