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Update on Investigation 99L

NOTE: Latest update on the bottom of this entry

My Facebook feed has been jammed with posts from meteorologist friends uploading the latest computer models of where Investigation 99L might go and how strong it might get.  (For those of you who don’t follow tropical weather news closely, Investigation 99L is an area of disturbed weather which is expected to organize and become Tropical Storm Hermine in a few days.) A lot of these posts show a single computer model with the worst possible scenario, often countered by other models which show a significantly different result.  At this point no one, including the computer forecast models, really know exactly what is going to occur, but they are starting to converge towards a reasonable expectation of what might happen.

The graphic below is a summary of what the National Hurricane Center thinks this morning.  The most important points for Southeasterners to remember is that no impacts are expected anywhere in the US (except Puerto Rico) before this weekend.  Most of the models are now indicating that it is most likely to hit south Florida early next week.  However, how strong it is and exactly where it goes depends critically on where it organizes and if it travels over the mountains of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and/or Cuba, which would tend to tear apart the storm’s organization.  What we can say at this point is that south and perhaps central Florida are likely to see quite a bit of rain, regardless of the status of the storm.

Stay tuned for updates from the National Hurricane Center and don’t believe everything you see posted on social media!

UPDATE: Here are some additional thoughts from Weather Underground at

nhc update on invest 99l

LATEST UPDATE for daily digest readeres:

nhc 99l 8-24-2016