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TS Colin forms: headed for Southeast

The National Hurricane Center noted the official development of Tropical Storm Colin this afternoon at 5:30 EDT.  This is the earliest ever in the season for a third named storm.  Colin is forecast to continue to develop and move off to the northeast over the next few days.  It is expected to land on the Florida peninsula on Monday afternoon, and then head up along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts before sliding out to sea again.

The storm is not expected to strengthen to hurricane status but should remain as a tropical storm.  It will bring strong rip tides and some rising water to the west coast of Florida, gusty winds and potentially flooding rain along its path (and especially on the south side of the path, although it won’t be confined there), and the chance of isolated tornadoes, especially in south and central Florida.  I’ve noticed that each new forecast moves the predicted path slightly farther to the north, so if you are in the southern half of Georgia you will want to keep an eye on the storm as newer forecasts come out.

The timing has been pretty consistent in bringing the effects of the storm into Florida by Monday mid-day, with the center of circulation predicted to be over coastal Georgia by around 1 am on Tuesday morning.  By noon on Tuesday most of the worst weather should have exited the Southeast land area, although high waves and gusty winds could continue to be a problem along the coast.  Once the storm is gone, quiet conditions should return to the Southeast for the next few days.

Please consult the National Hurricane Center’s website or your local NWS office forecasts for detailed information on your area.

TS colin forecast 6-5-2016